I keep reading posts on social media and emails from “experts” in real estate proclaiming an impending real estate crash. When I ask for hard data their retort is little more than a grunt and a thematic response that sounds like this.
“Prices too high.”
The extent of their macroeconomic analysis is little more than a blank stare followed with “real estate too expensive and – I am selling a course on how to buy short sales and foreclosures.”
ATTOM and RealtyTrac are two of the largest data aggregators and analytic firms in single family real estate. Note – ATTOM alone is integrated into MLS and pulls a massive amount of data from a litany of public and private data services. To put a finer point on these two firms – they have more data and analytic insight than anyone in the industry. They are THE standard for real estate econometrics.
I highly recommend you watch the video – but for those of short attention spans – here is the summary. If all the houses in forbearance went into foreclosure and then were placed on the market at the SAMETIME – prices – would virtually remain unchanged.
Click here to watch – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBJc65QLDQ0&ab_channel=ATTOMDataSolutions
If you are waiting for a crash – it ain’t happening – period. At this point someone who says there is an impending real estate crash should be given as much credence as a meth-head arguing with a stop sign on Main street – and after living in the heights for a year – I know meth-heads.
The next real estate market shift will occur around 2028-29, however investors will be priced out of the market in the next two years.
Today the median home price in Houston is $275,000 – Case-Shiller just posted 11% YoY increase in the median. If we only take half of Case-Shiller, 6% appreciation – by 2028 the median home price in Houston will be over $415,000. At 11% the median would be $520,000.
Rents are not keeping pace with inflation – which means – single family landlords will be priced out of cash flowing real estate in less than two years.
Rob and I will continue to monitor market conditions and communicate to the real estate community what we believe will happen next.
We have 2 memberships for THE Mastermind left. I recommend you join right now. Soon, single family real estate in Houston will be so expensive it will not cash flow.
I wonder who said –
If you think real estate is expensive now; just wait.
-JB