Last week, publicly on Facebook, I called three real estate gurus delusional.
Why?
They were hosting a joint facebook/youtube live discussing the coming foreclosure crisis and, of course, selling a class on how to take advantage of people losing their homes.
Kathryn, Rob’s wife and partner, mentioned she gets three emails a week from real estate agent training companies offering classes on foreclosures. Ironically, they all have disclaimers at the bottom of their offerings stating that, they have no business relationship or insight into banks offering foreclosed properties. To translate what these companies are offering – “we really don’t know whats’ going on – but here is a class we can sell you.”
Never believe a prediction that does not empower you. – Sean Stephenson
There will NEVER EVER be another crash like 2007-2008. The US government will never allow banks and homeowners to lose again, at scale.
Rob has said often that business decisions are motivated in one of two ways – fear and greed. In the case of a real estate market crash –
Fear in missing out or losing if investors bought before the crash and Greed to capture a bunch of properties “cheap.”
Millions of homeowners are in forbearance and it sounds completely plausible that the world is going to end. The problem with the crash thesis is that there is ZERO data that backs up the idea of a tidal wave of foreclosures.
But – hey – don’t believe me. Here is Dr. Dotzour – one of the most highly regarded real estate economists in the world.
“Many of these loans are going to be restructured…. you don’t need to be worried about a foreclosure crisis… the Federal Reserve and Fannie/Freddie will not let it happen.”
Here is a link – queued to Dr. Dotzour’s commentary about single family real estate.
https://youtu.be/6SXpreIiS90?t=2800
One often overlooked metric when studying resiliency in housing is the size of the population that is of age to purchase their first home. Economists call this “household formation,” e.g. young couples building families and buying homes.
One major reason there was a crash in 06-07 was the massive change in birth rates in the 70’s. A reduction in population – 33 years later – significantly reduced the number of first time home buyers purchasing their first home in 2006. This factor and many others will not occur again for at least another decade.
Click here for the charts, graphs and commentary about the real estate crash and changes in population.
https://vimeo.com/514789106#t=2100s
Do as you want and believe who you will – however – when I meet with real estate investors with decades of experience they all have one regret. They wish they bought more real estate – sooner.
Never believe a prediction that does not empower you. – Sean Stephenson
Building wealth is empowering – praying for a crash and millions being homeless is not.
THE Mastermind – a group of doing – https://www.mrtxre.com/mastermind/
If you are ready to build wealth with real estate we have 6 memberships available for the month of March. Annual membership is $10,000. The price goes up to $12,500 April 1st. Reply to this email or text Mastermind to 281-401-9008.